Elections last Sunday and they are pretty close, a manual recount (á la Florida 2000) has been ordered. Although this time, the recount is virtual. No ballots will be recounted unless the vote result envelopes have been altered. Mexico has 300 districts and a total of +130 000 ballot stations. The ballots in each station are counted and the results written on an envelope containing each station’s ballots. The recount is a manual recount of the number on all envelopes. Until today 2.5 million votes were “missing” according to one of the losing parties (PRD), but they were kept aside from the official vote count because of incosistencies (number of votes not corresponding to ballots, etc.). However, the Federal Election Commission has released the “final” numbers for the votes that hadn’t been counted in the preliminary vote count. This brings the election even closer. PAN is leading (winning?) by less than a point (0.63%).
These are the votes (not official, but probable results)
PAN
14,771,009 (35.91%)
PRI
9,127,889 (22.19%)
PRD
14,513,477 (35.28%)
Nueva Alianza
398,263 (0.97%)
ALTERNATIVA
1,114,006 (2,71%)
NON REGISTERED CANDIDATES
296,164 (0.72%)
INVALID BALLOTS
909,769 (2.21%)
TOTAL BALLOTS CAST
41,130,577 (100%)
So… what happens now?
PRD leader Lopez Obrador will obviously not accept the results. Anything but a huge victory for him (he said he lead the polls by over 10% just before the elections) is impossible. I would like Mr Obrador to present the polls that he says he lead in. It seems his pollsters are pretty bad at their job, which would explain the defeat. Anyway, Obrador – a huge fan of Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, Lula da Silva, etc. etc. – will probably stage huge demonstrations to “defend his victory” as he said. This will probably lead to violence – nothing new to Mr Obrador – and deaths. He is more power hungry than one would think.
This Obrador guy is a pretty sad figure. A couple of years ago, he insisted he would not ever run for president. “When it comes to elections, pretend I’m dead”, he said. Then he said “win me over in the ballots”, when he said he would think about becoming President. Then he said “We’re leading by more than 10 points” at the end of his campaign. Just before the elections he said he would inconditionally accept the IFE results. Hours after the election he said he would only accept IFE results if they were in line with his exit polls… and now everything is a complot against him. HAHAHAHAHA
Calderón, the virtual winner for PAN, says he is reaching out to his opponents – even Obrador – to try to build a coalition for ruling Mexico the next 6 years.
IFE (The Federal Election Commission) says they will begin the recount Wednesday and by the end of the week we will know who has won the election, although we all know PAN won.
…to be continued…